A Japanese official told me in confidence that Japan was going to relax its rules on defense exports “soon.” That was in 1995. The rules have gradually relaxed over the last three decades, but they are still considerable.
At long last, new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her coalition partner, Nippon Ishin no Kai, are poised to remove remaining restraints on defense exports, as announced in their recent joint policy statement.
What’s the significance?
It’s as much mental as anything. And it goes beyond “exports,” as Japan scrapes away the accretion of self-imposed restrictions on this and the most normal of defense-related activities.
Taken with other language in the new joint policy statement, Japan may start to see itself as a “normal” country when it comes to its defense. This includes strengthening its capabilities while engaging freely with other nations’ militaries ー as it has started doing in recent years.
Acknowledging What’s Possible
Japan’s shift potentially reduces, if not ends, the over-reliance on the United States, which tended to stunt Japan’s defense ー and Japanese thinking about national defense.
Too often, when it came to defense, Japanese would start from the premise that something was “not possible.” Ore that it was “too hard.” That thinking needed to change.
The limitations on arms exports have, in fact, been breaking down for some years now. Consider that Japan was prepared to build and export submarines to Australia in 2016. That’s a lethal weapon if there ever was one.
But once the export rules are removed, it won’t be necessary to engage in the verbal gymnastics and outright sophistry often used to justify particular exports in the past.
And Japanese industry’s view of the defense business might change.
Japanese industry has never viewed defense exports as an attractive and profitable business. Exporting was difficult, if not impossible, so why bother just building for the small domestic market?
In theory, removing export restrictions could alter business thinking. Companies that make defense hardware and equipment that might be in demand overseas may now prioritize this line of work. And their greater and steadier demand should bolster the overall business.
One wouldn’t expect Japan to become a major arms and equipment exporter overnight, and the defense export business is a sharp-elbowed game. But the door will at least be opened. And this tends to create markets and opportunities one may not yet see.
Read the rest at Japan Forward.
Grant Newsham is a Senior Fellow at Yorktown Institute.
