In February, it was revealed that Russia has been developing a nuclear-armed anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. Officials quickly issued reassurances that the technology had not been deployed and that it did not pose an imminent danger. While it is still not publicly known how far Russia is in the development of this capability, the news nevertheless underscores that trends are pointing to a future in space that is nuclear. But whether this future will involve the weaponized use of nuclear power in space remains an open question. As the United States seeks to curtail the proliferation of nuclear weapons in space, it must do so with a clear vision for the sort of nuclear future it would like to see in space. This article examines three possible such futures and the questions on arms control, nonproliferation, and extended nuclear deterrence that arise from them.
Nuclear Proliferation in Space
The use of nuclear power in space is nothing new. Radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) have powered spacecraft for decades, including ones designed for military use, such as the Navy’s Transit navigation satellite. However, RTGs use plutonium-238, which is non-fissile, for their power, meaning they cannot be used as nuclear weapons. It is the use of nuclear fission that has seen renewed interest among spacefaring nations, and which is the focus of this article.
Russia’s anti-satellite weapon is certainly the most alarming example of how fission technology might be employed, but not all the capabilities currently under development would necessarily be for military use. The United States, China, and Russia are all researching the civil use of nuclear propulsion in space. Last year, Lockheed Martin was awarded a contract to begin development on a nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) for a Mars missions, with an initial flight demonstration scheduled for 2027. In March, China claimed to have made progress in the development of their own nuclear reactor for use aboard spacecraft. Around the same time, Bloomberg reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been looking to fund the development of a nuclear-powered spacecraft as part of a wider effort to breathe new life into Russia’s space program. NTRs could significantly improve fuel efficiency in rockets and shave months off of their current travel times. However, along with their promises, NTRs have the potential to add new complexities to nuclear dynamics in space, particularly if they are applied to military use. There has already been some discussion on the use of nuclear propulsion for military space mobility and logistics. Senior national security space leaders have conveyed the need for a shift from “positional” to “dynamic” space operations (DSO) in which, “spaceborne combat forces are no longer static and predictable,” but instead enabled by sustained maneuver. Industry leaders have stated that the nuclear propulsion capabilities currently under development for civil use in space could transform the speed and pace at which military spacecraft move, in turn enabling DSO. Taken together, the trends described above point to three possible nuclear futures in space:
Future 1: Space Becomes Nuclearized, but Not Militarized or Weaponized
Under this scenario, states limit the use of nuclear fission technology in space to civil and commercial purposes. In the near future, NTRs may become the most widespread means of space travel and exploration, while in the further future, nuclear reactors could power bases on the moon and Mars. This future is, of course, the most “ideal,” but, in all likelihood, it will not come to pass without an explicit and concerted effort by the world’s nuclear powers to make it so. Russia has thus far shown no willingness to halt their development of a nuclear-armed ASAT weapon, having recently vetoed a U.N. resolution affirming provisions in the Outer Space Treaty that ban the proliferation of nuclear weapons in space. As actualizing this future will depend heavily on cooperation, it is likely to be the least unstable of the three scenarios explored in this article. If arms control and nonproliferation measures can meaningfully curtail the development of nuclear power for military purposes, then this future could become a reality.
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Luke Widenhouse is a research assistant at Yorktown Institute.
