Foreign policy analysts increasingly refer to the “axis of upheaval” to describe the growing cooperation among anti-Western powers—Russia, China, North Korea, and Iranian-backed groups. While much of the focus has been on the strategic partnership between Russia and China, the threat posed by Iranian-backed terrorist groups like the Houthis should not be overlooked. Multiple intelligence sources indicate that Iran is facilitating talks between the Houthi rebels and Russia to secure Russian P-800 Oniks anti-ship cruise missiles, significantly boosting the Houthis’ capacity to target vessels in the Red Sea. The Houthis are also reportedly granting Chinese cargo ships safe passage, given China’s strong diplomatic ties with Iran.
The Red Sea is a critical artery for global commerce. Yet the United States has largely failed to effectively address the growing Houthi threat. Responsible for 10-15% of global maritime trade, the Red Sea has seen a dramatic decline in container shipping—down over 90% since December 2023. Houthi attacks on vessels have forced companies to reroute ships around the southern tip of Africa, adding 1-2 weeks to travel times and increasing fuel costs by $1 million per trip. These disruptions have intensified pressure on already strained global supply chains, amplifying the economic impact on international trade. The U.S. must develop a clear policy toward the Red Sea to address this escalating crisis.
The Biden administration, however, lacks strategic clarity in its efforts to counter the Houthis. In December 2023, the United States launched Operation Prosperity Guardian with the support of 20 countries to protect commercial shipping from Houthi attacks by intercepting drones and missiles. However, the price of U.S. forces and technologies deployed in the Red Sea—such as interceptor missiles, Reaper drones, and precision-guided bombs—vastly outweighs the relatively low cost of the Houthis’ disruptive drones. Washington loses tens of millions of dollars with each downed Reaper, while Houthi casualties remain minimal, and commercial vessels continue to face threats.
The Pentagon has requested $1 billion over the next two years to develop “cost-effective” solutions to drone warfare, with a focus on Replicator drone swarms. However, this crucial initiative would prove futile if the root cause of the problem remains unaddressed. U.S. policy thus far has been one of deliberate de-escalation, primarily focused on defending against Houthi attacks. Unfortunately, this strategy does not establish a clear end objective. Rather than eliminating the Houthi threat and securing freedom of navigation, the Biden administration seems to believe that continued downing of Houthi missiles will act as a deterrent, which has not been proven the case. The Biden administration’s approach risks leading to prolonged and costly engagements while remaining entangled in a conflict with the Houthis.
Instead, the United States should go on the offense against the Houthis by going after their command and control centers, logistical infrastructures, arms shipments, and drone production facilities. According to the U.S. Naval Institute, as of November 12, 2024, the United States has a guided missile destroyer and a guided missile submarine in the Red Sea. The USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group was also recently deployed, including the Carrier Air Wing 1 with nine aviation squadrons, one guided missile cruiser, and two guided missile destroyers. These forces would be most effectively employed by taking the initiative against the Houthis.
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Kevin Zhang is a research assistant at Yorktown Institue.
