Azerbaijan and Armenia on Thursday struck a deal to end a nearly 40-year conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region in the South Caucasus. The agreement gives pro-Western Azerbaijan strategic footing to weaken Iran’s threat to the region and beyond. With the peace treaty finalized, Baku now has the capacity to shift its focus to Tehran. It has found a friend in Jerusalem.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office last week announced that Israel seeks to “establish a strong foundation for trilateral collaboration” with the U.S. and Azerbaijan.
This new cooperation would build on an existing relationship. Azerbaijan, the only country that borders both Iran and Russia, has long worked closely with Israel. Baku is Jerusalem’s largest supplier of oil, and Israeli weapons have modernized the Azerbaijani military.
Now, Israel aims to bring about Iran’s nightmare: trilateral cooperation among its greatest geopolitical adversaries. Washington should join Jerusalem to create a powerful bulwark against the Islamic Republic.
Ideas to strengthen relations are rumbling through the region. Last month a top adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with Mr. Netanyahu in Jerusalem. Diplomats involved in the discussion said the topic was expanding the Abraham Accords to Azerbaijan. The dialogue came on the heels of the first-ever delegation visit by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee—a pro-Israel lobbying group—to Baku. During that visit, the committee’s president told Mr. Aliyev that his country’s support for Israel “will be recognized.” In a Knesset session, Israeli parliamentarians spoke of adding Azerbaijan to the Abraham Accords and helping to draw it closer to the U.S.
Should Washington welcome these developments, it would gain a valuable partner on Iran’s borders. Including Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords would give the country better access both to Washington and to Middle Eastern and North African states that have substantive disagreements with Iran, such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. The accords could form the basis of an anti-Iran coalition.
Iran has noticed. State-affiliated news sources have reported the U.S., Azerbaijan and Israel strengthening ties. And last month a senior adviser to the ayatollah expressed concern to Mr. Hajiev over Israeli activities in Baku.
Iran sees the prospect of a strong Azerbaijan as an existential threat. An emboldened Azerbaijan would give competitor Turkey and nemesis Israel more regional power. It would also exploit one of Iran’s vulnerabilities.
Ethnic Azerbaijanis make up roughly a third of Iran’s population. Like other minority populations in Iran, the Azerbaijanis have been cruelly repressed and pressured to assimilate. Iran’s minorities, which also include Kurds, Baluch and Arabs, are more likely to be executed or “disappeared” by the state than their Persian counterparts. Iran also targets them culturally, preventing them from teaching their languages or giving their children traditional ethnic names.
Iranian Azerbaijanis have shown affinity for Azerbaijan. During the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Iranian Azerbaijanis gathered at the border to cheer on their co-ethnics. When a Chicago-based Azerbaijani-language news channel took calls from inside Iran to discuss Israel, Azerbaijanis called in to praise Jerusalem’s support for Baku.
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Seth Cropsey is the founder and president of Yorktown Institute.
Joseph Epstein is a Senior Fellow at Yorktown Institute.
