Seth Cropsey and Harry Halem, via Barron’s:
Ukraine’s spectacular attacks on Russia’s strategic air fleet on June 1 was a triumph of intelligence capacity. Ukraine is now winning the shadow war with Russia. If Europe and the U.S. support it by actively applying pressure to Russia, Russia may soon be forced to return to the negotiating table with serious ceasefire conditions.
Today, as in the past, the fight between Russia and the West occurs largely off the battlefield. In the 20th century, the U.S. and the Soviet Union fought each other in a roiling, decadeslong shadow war across multiple continents, as the risks of an open war compelled competition to shift into the gray zone of intelligence operations. Russia is now waging a shadow war in the same way.
It tripled its intelligence operations against the West in 2023-24 after quadrupling them in 2022-23. It has attempted to ship explosive packages to the U.S., attack Warsaw’s largest shopping center, assassinate the CEO of Europe’s largest ammunition manufacturer, attack Ukrainian-owned businesses in Western Europe, and cyberattack large-scale U.S. and European governmental institutions and businesses.
