Britain Must Prepare for War. America Won’t Save Us This Time

One reason why supporting Ukraine “for as long as it takes”, and not “for as long as we can” is so important is that Ukraine’s security is irretrievably ingrained into our own. By single-handedly tying down the world’s largest nuclear arsenal power – a force over double in size and many times over in numbers of artillery and armour –  the Ukrainian Armed Forces are the only thing holding back Putin’s nostalgic fantasies for an imagined return to a perceived ‘Greater Russia’ spreading westward like a plague firmly into Nato territory.

There was an argument to be made last year that Russia, its military bruised and its political leadership damaged by Putin’s hubris almost two years ago, is unable to even break out of eastern Ukraine – much less neighbouring Poland or the Baltics. As I wrote in these pages nearly two years ago, Russia is no longer even the eminent military power in eastern Europe.

Two years on, and regrettably a somewhat different picture is beginning to emerge. The hope of an all-successful Ukrainian counter-offensive smashing the Russian lines apart has slowly dwindled. Ukraine is running perilously low on ammunition and especially artillery, as financial deadlock in Washington and Brussels compound with EU promises falling drastically short leave Kyiv exposed.

Just as Ukraine is running frighteningly low on stocks as its two largest financial donors are frozen in paralysis, Russia has begun rearming and reindustrialising at an alarming rate, promising to devote between 30-40 per cent of its economic output this year on its military machine.

Buoyed by support from the world’s increasingly influential global south leaders China, and even British Commonwealth allies South Africa and India, the Kremlin is utilising its defence partnerships with Iran and North Korea to sustain enormous drone and ballistic missile bombardments over Ukrainian towns and cities this winter, inflicting further suffering and illegal civilian casualties.

Given the decreasing likelihood now for a short-term strategic Ukrainian victory, and with Russia’s rearming at scale, there are numerous calls warning that Nato should begin preparing for war with Russia within the next ten to twenty years. The chairman of Nato’s Military Committee, Admiral Bauer, is the latest in a chorus of senior military personnel to caution that the alliance must start preparing for conflict with Russia.

Read the rest at The Telegraph.

Robert Clark is a fellow at Yorktown Institute.

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