As the Ukraine war slogs on and the Middle East is as unstable as ever, it has become clear that the world is not going the way Washington wants.
Still, when one door closes, check the window.
In the past few years, a critically important region has begun to move away from Russia and towards the West—the South Caucasus nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan.
This region, in the backyards of both Russia and Iran, could eventually provide a trade route from China to Europe that bypasses Moscow and Tehran. Such a route—the so-called Middle Corridor—would also give the West access to Central Asian energy and minerals while avoiding transport through not only Russia and Iran, but China as well.
This is now a possibility since Azerbaijan and Armenia’s fierce ethnic war over Nagorno-Karabakh—an Armenian separatist enclave on Azerbaijani territory—has ended. Through the leadership of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia has given up its extraterritorial claims and sought peace. The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh that began in 1988 was one of many caused by Russian-backed separatists in the post-Soviet space like South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria. In the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, Moscow played both sides, selling weapons to both Baku and Yerevan.
This has now led both nations to seek closer ties to the West. Azerbaijan has been a critical energy partner for Europe as Brussels seeks to give up Russian oil and gas and Armenia has sought European integration.
While Azerbaijan has pursued trade relations with its neighbors, including both Russia and Iran, it has never become dependent on either. Armenia, however, is still reliant on Russia and Iran economically and militarily. To fight the militarily superior Azerbaijan for over three decades, Yerevan sacrificed its independence.
Since Pashinyan was first elected following a 2018 popular revolution, he has tried to move Armenia out from Russia’s sphere of influence. He has vowed to leave the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), staged joint drills with U.S. forces, hinted at attempting to join the European Union and sought alternative military partners.
Read the rest at Newsweek.
Joseph Epstein is a Fellow at Yorktown Institute.
