The cease-fire the U.S. hastily agreed to with Iran became necessary because of President Trump’s unforced errors—making unsupportable threats—and the U.S. military’s lack of preparation to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations for an indefinite cease-fire will now occur over the next nearly two weeks. It is critical that the Trump administration not give up on its wartime objectives in the name of diplomatic deal making.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime choke points. As soon as the war began, navigation through it effectively halted. “The reason ships are not transiting right now is because the Islamic Republic is shooting at them with drones and missiles,” Adm. Brad Cooper, who commands U.S. military operations in the region, told reporters in late March. Will the U.S. cede control over the strait to reach a deal? If America were to abandon its insistence on secure navigation in international waters, it would reverse U.S. foreign and security policy since the maritime Quasi-War with France in 1798.
The U.S. could have avoided the Hormuz conundrum. The civilian leadership at the Pentagon has failed to persuade the military to invest adequately in counterdrone capabilities since the Biden administration and into the current one. The war in Ukraine is proof of a new era of drone warfare, but even this didn’t convince the services to take the drone threat seriously.
The second potential threat to shipping is sea mines. The U.S. Navy’s mine-sweeping capabilities remain untested. Mines, like drones, are a cheap tactic, which is why the Navy doesn’t take them seriously. Extremely few flag officers ever served as countermine officers. But cheap doesn’t mean ineffective, especially in large numbers. A sea mine could sink a ship in transit.
Because the U.S. was insufficiently prepared, Iran succeeded in closing the strait and then operating it. Over the past few weeks, Iran has tolled ships, a practice that will continue throughout the cease-fire. The struggles at the strait have also dealt a blow to the U.S. military’s prestige. It’s reasonable to ask whether a force that can’t open the Strait of Hormuz against Iran could open the Taiwan Strait or break a drone- and mine-enforced blockade against a much more formidable foe, China.
The American strategy was to degrade Iran’s munitions so that the U.S. could escort vessels without being swarmed. This takes longer than a few weeks. As the saying goes, out of good, fast and cheap, you can only pick two. The president wanted all three: to enforce the free navigation of the sea, quickly, without deploying boots on the ground.
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Seth Cropsey is the founder and president of Yorktown Institute.
Shay Khatiri is Yorktown Institute’s Vice President of Development.
