Moscow’s Weakness Behind the Crisis With Baku

On June 27th the FSB (Russian Federal Security Service) and police forces conducted simultaneous raids in Yekaterinburg, targeting dozens of ethnic Azerbaijanis. This city is one of the centers of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia, which numbers between 2 and 3 million people (not all of them are Azerbaijani citizens). The targets of the raid were portrayed as part of an “ethnic criminal group” involved in unsolved murders dating as far as 2001 and 2011. The operation resulted in the deaths of two brothers, Huseyn Safarov (59) and Ziyaddin Safarov (54), both Russian citizens of Azerbaijani descent, who owned the “Caspian” cafe in the city.

Russian authorities claimed that Ziyaddin died of “heart failure” and provided no cause of death for Huseyn. However, Azerbaijan’s forensic examination revealed extensive evidence of fatal, cruel beatings and torture. The autopsy found broken ribs, deformed chests, internal bleeding, and injuries to the genital areas of both men. Azerbaijan’s chief medical examiner concluded they died from “post-traumatic shock” caused by severe bodily trauma, directly contradicting Russian explanations.

Multiple witnesses and family members reported systematic torture during the raids. Survivors described being “thrown to the floor in separate rooms and beaten with various objects,” with some subjected to electric shocks. One detainee, Vugar Safarov, told journalists that he and his brother were “forced to eat dirt” during transport to the police station and beaten when they refused. Their father, who suffers from a heart condition, was reportedly shocked with an electric taser multiple times.

The Russian independent media outlet Meduza documented that at least one suspect showed visible signs of severe beatings during court appearances, while lawyers confirmed broken ribs for detainees. Video evidence showed security personnel smashing car windows with hammers and forcibly dragging diaspora leader Shahin Shikhlinsky from his vehicle. He was detained but released later as a “witness”.

The death of two detainees and the outright racist brutality of the law enforcement triggered the worst ever crisis in Russian-Azerbaijani relations. It is noteworthy that the relations have already went sour following the shooting down of the Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 in December 2024. The Russian behavior highlights not only the Kremlin’s pathological proclivity to exacerbate the existing problems instead of resolving them, but also the existence of geopolitical stakes. In both cases, the Kremlin has outright refused to admit guilt, thereby aggravating the crisis.

Russian state media and officials consistently framed the events as legitimate criminal investigations targeting Russian citizens involved in decades-old murderswhich were cold cases for a very long time. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova emphasized detainees were “Russian citizens of Azerbaijani origin” and characterized Azerbaijan’s response as an “absolutely inspired campaign… organized, well-planned against our country.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov blamed Ukraine for trying to “add fuel to the fire” and insisted Russia “has never threatened, and does not threaten Azerbaijan.”

Azerbaijan’s reaction

The Azerbaijani reaction followed the pattern of the reaction to the previous incident with Russia, meaning that Baku was attempting to avoid a full-scale crisis with Moscow to the extent possible. Baku raised the stakes only following the total absence of Russian reciprocity.

Azerbaijani media and commentators have lambasted the Russian policy of “chauvinism and ethnic discrimination.” They said that the violence against ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia was the continuation of tensions between Moscow and Baku caused by the shooting of an Azerbaijani passenger jet by Russian air defenses.

Azertag news agency compared Moscow’s behavior to the policy of Nazi Germany and said that Russia was looking for a “new enemy” and new conflicts to deal with growing public discontent with the prolonged war against Ukraine. According to Azartac, Moscow still views former Soviet republics as its colonies; it cannot stand Baku’s independent foreign policy, which is why it is trying to put pressure on Azerbaijan through “a hunt for migrants”.

Similarly, the Caliber Telegram channel said that the “massive campaign of pressure” on religious and ethnic minorities was part of the Putin administration’s policy and was aimed at diverting public discontent away from the Russian authorities. Some other Azerbaijani media even compared Putin to Stalin.

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Culture on 29 June called off all cultural events in the country involving the Russian state and private entities. On 30 June, Azerbaijan detained three Russian state media employees—two managers from the Sputnik news agency’s Azerbaijani service in Baku and an employee of the Ruptly news agency. Sputnik news agency is an official Russian propaganda outlet, and its workers are very often intelligence officers under the cover of journalists.

On June 30, the Zakharova, i.e., the Kremlin, blamed Azerbaijan for “unfriendly acts.” The translation of the wording by the Kremlin mouthpiece means Russia may consider further responses.

What is behind the scenes?

Russian arrogance and racism

One should not always look for deeper or hidden reasons; sometimes bad things just happen. The attitude of the Russian authorities towards non-Russian immigrants is very often derogatory and racist. It is very often arbitrarily cruel. Russian law enforcement is perceived on a popular level as criminal as the criminals themselves are. They can beat to death anyone because they can, without having an obvious goal, be it a malicious one. The claim of Azerbaijani media that the Russians see Central Asia and the Caucasus as their former colony is right: Russian authorities got accustomed to the reaction of fear and obedience following their bullying. The fact that Azerbaijan is not ready to play by the rules Russia sets makes the Kremlin even more aggressive.

The growing tensions between Baku and Moscow are of concern for other Central Asian nations. Numerous immigrants from those post-Soviet republics live in Russia, and they fear becoming victims of the same arbitrary rule of lawlessness. This is why many Uzbek commentators and authors praised Azerbaijan’s stance, suggested emulating Azerbaijan’s behavior towards Russia, and even dared to criticize Putin—which has been unheard of hitherto.


Read the rest at BESA.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center, a professor of the Persian language at Ariel University, and a Captain in the reserves of the Israeli Defense Forces Intelligence. 

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