On Oct. 1, Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles against Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israeli air defenses, with substantial support from the U.S. Air Force, intercepted most of the missiles. However, a large-scale Israeli response seems inevitable now, raising concerns about a broader conflict.
Although fears of an all-out war are exaggerated, the looming confrontation between the two states forces the U.S. to confront the consequences of decades of policies that have contributed to this crisis.
Anti-Zionism and anti-Americanism have long been central to the ideology of the Islamic Republic of Iran, serving as revolutionary principles that legitimize the regime before its base. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei frequently refers to “the enemy” in his speeches, emphasizing these themes repeatedly.
In the U.S., such rhetoric is often dismissed as political posturing for domestic audiences. There is truth to this interpretation. But decades of such rhetoric have created a demand for action among the regime’s supporters.
The Islamic Republic, despite not being a democracy, still has its own internal politics and is responsive to its core base to stay in power. The recent missile attack was likely intended to appease this base, with Khamenei hoping that the U.S. would restrain Israeli retaliation, as it had done in previous confrontations, allowing him to save face.
Hostilities are unlikely to end as long as both Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran remain intact, as the regime in Tehran risks losing its legitimacy if it fails to meet its ideological commitments.
U.S. policy has consistently underestimated this ideological drive, contributing to the current tensions. For decades, the U.S. has rightly provided military support to Israel while failing to take adequate measures to curb Iran’s military ambitions. Under Democratic administrations, U.S. policy has facilitated Iran’s militarization through sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets.
Achieving peace between Israel and Iran is impossible as long as the Islamic Republic remains in power. The U.S. has historically avoided a policy of regime change in Iran. Democratic administrations’ financial concessions have even extended the regime’s life.
