Russia

Putin and Xi at Beijing Olympics

Spasm Escalation: Russia’s Last Weapon has been Spent

Russia has its back against the wall. Western analysts have missed this fact. Indeed, they have completely misinterpreted Russia’s “escalation ladder,” the technical term for the set of responses Russia sees at each stage of the Ukraine war. The “gas weapon” that Russia has just employed, a full supply cut, signals the Kremlin’s […]

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Putin and Erdogan

Keeping Turkey on the Right Side of the Battle between US and Russia

Recent revelations of deepening Russo-Turkish economic ties despite the Ukraine war forces the U.S. to reckon with Russia’s wider strategy. The Kremlin’s strategic objective in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea since the late 2000s has been to reorient Turkey, peeling it from the Atlantic Alliance and shifting it to the

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Blinken

Geopolitical Linkage of Anti-US Powers

US President Joe Biden’s administration appears keen on rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Barack Obama administration’s so-called “Iran deal” that notionally guaranteed Iran would not produce nuclear weapons. A deal remains unlikely. Nevertheless, the very fact that the Biden administration has doggedly pursued the chimerical agreement for

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Artillery shells

All Elements of National Power

A pivotal issue in Ukraine’s defense is the West’s—and the U.S.’ in particular—ability to provide weapons and ammunition swiftly enough to defeat Russia. As Western arms shipments continue, the Ukrainian military will become more capable. Several thousand Ukrainians are now training in the UK and Eastern European NATO states, learning

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A Ukrainian serviceman walks on a destroyed Russian fighting vehicle in Bucha, Ukraine, Thursday, April 7, 2022.

Putin Can’t Control His Ukraine Cataclysm — and the US Must Get Ready

As the Russo-Ukrainian war grinds into its sixth full month, we must reckon with strategic reality. Russia is losing ground, and its strategic position will only deteriorate in coming months; further military reversals will intensify its strategic quandary. Three possibilities exist — revolution, a palace coup, or horizontal escalation — and

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Destroyed Russian Tank in Ukraine

Does Ukraine Herald End of Tank Warfare? Not Yet

While estimates differ, Russia has lost around 1,000 tanks in Ukraine since its invasion on February 24, according to the Oryx database. There are no reliable figures on how many tanks the Ukrainians have lost, but it would be significantly fewer because they have been used in more limited ways during the

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Kherson

Ukraine War: The Crucial Coming Fight for Kherson

Russian troops today occupy Kherson and have carried out some limited assaults on Odesa. The Russian army occupies most of the territory from Kherson and due east, including Mariupol. While Russia has said little about its long-term intentions, there is a growing awareness that Russia wants to consolidate the cities and towns,

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Ukrainian grain field burning

Russia’s New War Strategy: Destroy the Global Economy

Upheaval in Sri Lanka and spiking global energy prices are the result of Russia’s new strategy in Ukraine. By causing international shocks, Russia hopes to overawe the West once again, both presenting it the prospect of a winter energy shortage and stoking crises in the developing world. The West should

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Ukraine counter-terrorism operation

Blood and Toil

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a NATO renaissance, at least rhetorically. It appears rejuvenated, robust, and capable of confronting Russia in the long-term. Nevertheless, the Ukraine War has merely obfuscated severe political fissures within NATO. Ironically, they are the inverse of the difficulties NATO faced in the early

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Xi and Putin

Xi Jinping Might Think He Can Handle His Own ‘Ukraine’

Chinese leader Xi Jinping, like many people, may have been surprised by Russia’s failure to conquer Ukraine in a matter of days – owing in large measure to unexpectedly fierce Ukrainian resistance. In addition, the Americans and the Europeans – even the Germans – imposing wide-ranging economic and financial sanctions

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