In the early hours of June 6, the Kakhovka Dam burst. The most probable culprit is Russia, given its control over the dam throughout the occupation of right-bank Kherson Oblast. The incident will have significant, tragic humanitarian effects. But as a matter of warfare, it illustrates how badly off-balance Russian forces are
The Kakhovka Dam’s Destruction Shows a Russian Military on its Back Foot Continue Reading >>
As the Ukraine War runs on into another summer, the United States should face facts: it needs a strategy for the Black Sea to adapt to a long-range period of geopolitical strife. A public articulation of a U.S. Black Sea strategy, along with the tangible kinetic steps to implement it,
The United States Needs a Black Sea Strategy Continue Reading >>
American foreign policy has always sought to ensure the Western Hemisphere remained free of Eurasian political influence. Since World War I, this has meant active participation in the Eurasian balance to disrupt or defeat aspiring Eurasian hegemons. Today, America needs a Black Sea strategy that furthers its Eurasian interests. Sens.
The U.S. Needs a Black Sea Strategy Continue Reading >>
After months of wrangling, Ukraine’s Western partners have finally made the reasonable choice and dispatched NATO-standard tanks to Kyiv’s forces. Yet the shadows of doubt cloud this success. The U.S. will not transport Abrams tanks from its stockpiles to Ukraine. Instead, it will order another 30-plus tanks directly from General
Festina Lente Continue Reading >>
All sides’ strategic incentives in the Ukraine War point toward continued conflict in 2023. The war’s settlement will emerge from the battlefield, not primarily from negotiations. Russia, meanwhile, is planning another offensive to solidify its territorial position and prepare for another year of war. Every weapon that the West refrains
Ukraine War’s Outlook in 2023: Harder Fighting Against a Tougher Russian Army Continue Reading >>
In the now classic 1967 film The Graduate, protagonist Benjamin Braddock, being feted with a graduation party, is pulled aside by a friend of his parents. Mr Maguire says he has only one word for Ben: “plastics.” Then, using more words, Maguire tells Ben, “There’s a great future in plastics.” Today it looks more and
Windfalls Await Investors in Ammunition Continue Reading >>
In a shocking statement that has now been withdrawn, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote that Ukraine has lost 100,000 soldiers and 20,000 civilians in the Ukraine war. This conforms to comments made by US Joint Chief of Staff head General Mark Milley, who in a speech at a conference hosted by New York’s
Ukrainian Military Casualties are Big Trouble for Biden Continue Reading >>
The Ukraine War approaches its nine-month mark with no end in sight, no easy path to extrication or war termination, and no clear and clean victory without risk. In this context, it is crucial to recall the war’s strategic importance and recognize that the Black Sea is the prize Russia seeks.
The Center of Gravity Continue Reading >>
Ukraine’s victory in Kherson Oblast has confirmed the centrality of sea access in the war with Russia. As Ukraine plans its next move, and Russia responds to Ukraine’s advances, Western policymakers must prioritize Ukraine’s victory at sea, and ensure that Kyiv has the tools it requires to break Russian sea
The Naval War Continue Reading >>
Russia’s announced withdrawal from Kherson has initiated a new phase of the war. Out of it come several considerations. Operationally, Ukraine has an opportunity to press retreating Russian forces and destroy them. Strategically, Ukraine must now consider its next offensive steps. And politically, the US and its allies cannot mistake
The Retreat from Kherson Continue Reading >>
