A Containment Strategy for a New Era
In light of the rapidly deteriorating international environment, America needs a permanent, multinational military alliance in the Indo-Pacific to contain the rising Axis of Expansionists. This would be a prudent move for American strategists, not least because it would effectively deny freedom of movement to the members of the New Axis, all of which either border or reside directly within the Asia Pacific. Such an alliance would essentially complicate the New Axis’ ambitions on either side of Eurasia, with American-led military power thereafter being cemented in both the Euro-Atlantic and Asia-Pacific regions of Eurasia’s landmass.
The United States has a long history of geostrategic interactions with Eurasian powers, going back to its inception. It is, however, by virtue of its geography, an offshore power. Despite this fact, America has kept a significant forward-deployed military presence, designed to contain Eurasian aggression. However, this forward presence also means that the United States has and will face significant vulnerabilities collectively known as the “Tyranny of Distance” when trying to sustain or project force abroad. The Axis’ military capabilities, which are largely built on Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) strategies designed to keep American military forces out of their respective regions, have significantly compounded America’s strategic dilemma. A2/AD reflects the new power bloc’s ultimate ambitions of rolling back Americanism itself; This is a major revisionist aim, which, if unchecked, could deal a death blow to American dominance. That end-state would ultimately lead to a world more dangerous and less receptive to America’s system of republican liberty. Such a consequence could eventually lead to the death of America’s political system. Because of these factors, this current moment will test the post-World War II liberal international order like no threat since the current geopolitical order’s postwar inception.
To understand what is at stake in the present, though, we must look backward: The period of America’s grand strategy from 1945 to today. This present moment is somewhat of an historical anomaly in America’s history : The United States took a restrained, quasi-isolationist approach to its grand strategy for much of its foreign policy from 1789-1917, albeit with exceptions. Many American strategists continued to (wrongly) assume that America would be safe behind “oceanic moats”, following a defense strategy of hemispheric denial right up until the morning of December 7th, 1941. That ultimate catalyst for change would see America intervene in the mid-20th Century’s wars of global mass destruction, and the emergence of the nuclear bomb (and eventually, missile). This fundamentally changed American strategic assumptions on its national security, and by extension, its postwar role in the international order. This moment ushered in what academic strategist Bernard Brodie termed in his seminal work as “The Missile Age,” after World War II. The U.S. could no longer rely on either oceans or hemispheric defense for its national security, especially as intercontinental missiles, submarines, and aircraft could reach the U.S. and its territories and wreak havoc with relative impunity.
This realization that America could no longer be safe in a world made increasingly small by the reach of an enemy power led to nothing short of a revolution in American foreign and strategic affairs: A permanent American military presence was established in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and institutions like NATO and the United Nations were created, with the U.S. holding a seat on the UN Security Council and being NATO’s most powerful member-state. The United States also played a leading role in Europe’s economic recovery, known collectively as the Marshall Plan, named after former General, Secretary of State and Defense, George Marshall. The United States also intervened in South Korea, Vietnam, and other nations to contain the spread of communism. From 1945-1991, Europe was the immediate strategic priority of the U.S. National Security Establishment, especially as the conventional and nuclear military balance of power in Europe increasingly favored the Soviet Union in the earlier years of the Cold War. In the decades after the fall of the Soviet Union, however, the center of gravity shifted dramatically towards the Asia-Pacific region of Eurasia. Today this fact is highly visible, especially regarding the Axis of Expansion: All four Axis Powers – Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea – are located primarily in Asia (Russia being the only major adversary to have European territory of its own). Additionally, Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, with North Korean assistance, highlighted the strategic convergence of the Asian and European regions of Eurasia, a reality the U.S.-led Free World had largely forgotten since the end of the Cold War.
Jack Buckley is a Research Assistant at Yorktown Institute.
Read the rest at RealClear Defense.
