The political survival of Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan has been nothing short of remarkable. Since rising to power during Armenia’s 2018 Velvet Revolution, the embattled prime minister has withstood the fallout from the 2020 Karabakh war, open hostility from the Kremlin-backed Armenian Apostolic Church, and alleged coup attempts. His pursuit of peace with Azerbaijan and closer ties with the West has earned him powerful enemies—from the Russian government to diaspora organizations to Armenia’s former leaders.
With a final peace deal on the horizon and parliamentary elections looming next year, the stakes could not be higher. If Pashinyan holds on, he may guide Armenia into a long-sought era of peace. If he falls, the country risks sliding back into Moscow’s orbit, as its neighbor Georgia has, and could reignite conflict in the South Caucasus.
At the August 8 Washington Peace Summit, US president Donald Trump praised Pashinyan’s courage. After 30 years of bitter conflict over Karabakh, pursuing peace with Azerbaijan—especially after Baku’s battlefield victory—was politically difficult. If Washington wants to secure that peace, it must also secure Pashinyan’s political survival. Despite remaining Armenia’s most popular politician, he now polls at just 17 percent, reflecting widespread disillusionment and apathy.
The United States can help Pashinyan prove that his policies bring tangible benefits. Strategic investment in Armenia’s “Crossroads for Peace” initiative and its emerging AI sector could boost the economy, create jobs, and solidify Armenia’s role as a key transit hub. Washington must also resist pressure from well-funded diaspora groups like the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), which oppose peace despite not bearing the consequences of renewed war.
Encouragingly, Armenia is beginning to see the first tangible dividends of its peace efforts. This week, Azerbaijan announced it would allow the transit of goods to Armenia, and the first shipment of Kazakh wheat is expected to cross through Azerbaijani territory soon—a modest but symbolically important step toward regional economic integration.
Armenia’s role as a transit hub is of direct importance to US interests. The Middle Corridor—a critical overland trade route from East Asia to Europe that bypasses Russia and Iran—currently runs through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. But Georgia’s tilt toward Moscow under the ruling Georgian Dream party casts doubt on its reliability. Armenia could serve as a crucial alternative.
Pashinyan anticipated this when he launched the Crossroads for Peace initiative in October 2023, envisioning Armenia as a regional connector through revitalizing railways, highways, pipelines, and power lines. For decades, Armenia’s regional isolation stemmed from closed borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan due to the Karabakh conflict. Now, with a peace deal that may soon reopen those frontiers, Armenia has a unique chance to establish itself as a vital East-West transit hub—especially as routes through Russia, Iran, and the Red Sea grow less stable due to global conflicts.
Moscow, however, is unlikely to stand aside. Russian ambassador Sergei Kopyrkin bluntly stated that “Russia is not only not leaving the South Caucasus, but is not weakening its attention to either the situation in the region or its relations with the Republic of Armenia, as a fraternal and allied country” and that Russia’s 102nd military base in Gyumri was “the most important supporting structure of Armenia’s security.” For Russia, Armenia has long been part of its dominion, and the Kremlin will not surrender influence without resistance.
Read the rest at The National Interest.
Joseph Epstein is a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute and the Director of the Turan Research Center.
