Ukraine’s spectacular attacks on Russia’s strategic air fleet on June 1 was a triumph of intelligence capacity. Ukraine is now winning the shadow war with Russia. If Europe and the U.S. support it by actively applying pressure to Russia, Russia may soon be forced to return to the negotiating table with serious ceasefire conditions.
Today, as in the past, the fight between Russia and the West occurs largely off the battlefield. In the 20th century, the U.S. and the Soviet Union fought each other in a roiling, decadeslong shadow war across multiple continents, as the risks of an open war compelled competition to shift into the gray zone of intelligence operations. Russia is now waging a shadow war in the same way.
It tripled its intelligence operations against the West in 2023-24 after quadrupling them in 2022-23. It has attempted to ship explosive packages to the U.S., attack Warsaw’s largest shopping center, assassinate the CEO of Europe’s largest ammunition manufacturer, attack Ukrainian-owned businesses in Western Europe, and cyberattack large-scale U.S. and European governmental institutions and businesses.
Since 2022, NATO countries have expelled 750 Russian spies under official diplomatic cover. There are other, unconfirmed instances of Russian intelligence activity, such as the leak of sensitive information on Sweden’s incoming national security adviser and large-scale infrastructure failures in France, the U.K., and Spain. The full scope of Russia’s shadow activity is thoroughly classified. But it has obviously increased since the one-off poisonings, assassinations, and sabotage attempts of the 2010s.
Intelligence operations remain a key pillar of Russian strategy because Russia doesn’t have the military capacity to conquer Ukraine. It may gain more ground at a horrendous cost, throwing soldiers forward on motorbikes and scooters in the hope that Ukraine won’t waste ammunition on individual targets. But the chances of a large-scale operational breakthrough akin to the massed tank battles of World War II’s Eastern Front are low.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin cannot just give up. It has staked far too much blood and money to extract itself before victory. Nor can Russia “unleash its reserve capabilities” on Ukraine. Such reserves don’t exist. Russia could conduct a nuclear strike. But a limited atomic attack wouldn’t appreciably change the military balance, and a large-scale nuclear strike would prompt Western intervention.
Read the rest at Barron’s.
Seth Cropsey is the founder and president of Yorktown Institute.
Harry Halem is a Senior Fellow at Yorktown Institute.
