There is something slow but inevitable in the strategic changes in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Two years have shown that Russia’s horrific invasion will not be stopped by anything but force. Russia’s military industry has ramped up faster than the West’s, providing Russian forces with an overwhelming weight of fire.
Western capitals have responded more slowly, but have provided support that has kept Ukraine and the fight and given the Ukrainian Armed Forces long-range strike capabilities and superior Western armaments, and it remains to be seen if this, and increased munitions production, can turn the tide again. Deploying Western troops – either as a NATO operation or more likely in a coalition of the willing – would provide obvious aid to Ukraine, but it would be an unparalleled opportunity for Western governments and militaries, and that bears great consideration.
With US military aid resuming and Western munitions factories churning up production, manpower and mobilization have become new points of concern. Ukraine is outnumbered, and Russia’s ability to draw up battalions for new offensives is a critical problem. Ukraine’s 800-mile front is getting longer with the Kharkiv offensive, and the Russian air campaign will not let up without a major increase in air defenses. Several NATO members – France, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia among them – have floated the idea of sending troops to Ukraine to provide training, logistic support, and possibly to provide reserves against a major Russian breakthrough.
A Russian breakthrough in Kharkiv seems unlikely at this point, but a significant advance north of Donetsk City could still happen. Kyiv has consistently stated that it does not ask for Western troops to fight this war, it simply wants the armaments to fight and win. Kyiv has, of course, not shut down this discussion. The benefits to Ukraine are obvious: forces used for logistics could be moved to reinforce the front. Extensive NATO-style training would cut down on the timeline from recruitment to deployment as new units would travel less distance. An increase in available training centers would alleviate logistical stress on recruitment.
Read the rest at the Kyiv Post.
Michael DiCianna is a Research Assistant at Yorktown Institute.
