Recent statements made by President Donald Trump and his National Security Advisor Mike Walz indicate that a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin about a conclusion to the Russo-Ukrainian war is being organized. Trump’s willingness to revive diplomatic channels with Russia will likely succeed in accelerating a peace agreement, but he will have to account for Moscow’s longer timeline when negotiating a settlement.
What a Ukraine-Russia Deal Could Look Like
During his interview with Tucker Carlson last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that the terms of a peace deal signed with Ukraine would have to resemble those drafted in Istanbul in April 2022.
As summarized by Lavrov, these entailed “no NATO, but security guarantees to Ukraine, collectively provided with the participation of Russia,” which “would not cover Crimea or the east of Ukraine.” Putin has also cited the West’s rejection of the Istanbul agreements as part of a plan to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.
The Vance Vision on Ukraine Peace
Vice President JD Vance’s vision for Ukraine presents opportunities for dialogue with Moscow.
In his view, the warring parties would freeze the conflict in its current state—solidifying Russia’s control over both Crimea and Ukraine’s eastern territories—and establish a demilitarized zone to deter Moscow from attacking again in the future.
Trump may pair this plan with continued military aid to Ukraine if it agrees to negotiate.
Room for A Deal?
There thus appear to be several points where Trump and his advisors align with Putin, which bodes well for a more rapid end to the conflict.
Perhaps the most critical alignment concerns the infeasibility of Ukrainian membership in NATO. The United States has been sending aid to Ukraine for decades—with a significant increase after Russia’s annexation of Crimea—suggesting that American military funding for Ukraine is not the primary factor that provoked Russia to invade.
Rather, as frequently emphasized in Russian statements, public insinuations that Ukraine was being considered for NATO membership were the main cause of the conflict. Since Trump has reportedly expressed opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine, this could facilitate negotiations with Moscow.
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Axel de Vernou is a Research Assistant at Yorktown Institute.
