President Trump faced a choice between two options last month—escalation or capitulation. He chose neither. Instead, he sought a middle road by blockading Iran’s oil capacity. He faces the same choice a month later, only now with less-favorable macroeconomics. Mr. Trump may be able to compel Iran to seek peace. But if not, this time he needs to be willing to follow through on the threat of catastrophic force. That means preparing for a multistage operation, including boots on the ground, that forcibly reopens the Strait of Hormuz to accelerate the collapse of the Iranian state.
Launching the war against Iran was strategically prudent. The regime is an inveterate enemy of the U.S. It has on its hands the blood of thousands of Americans in Iraq and elsewhere. It works closely with Russia, China, North Korea and until recently Venezuela in their efforts to undermine the U.S. It supports proxy terrorist organizations, notably Hezbollah, which destabilize the Middle East and provide Iran with direct connections to organized crime. The Islamic Republic also seeks a nuclear weapon. Since the mid-2000s, the regime has refashioned the state around the objective of building nuclear capabilities, combined with a growing arsenal of missiles and drones that it has unleashed against Israel and the Gulf states.
In late February, Mr. Trump chose the option no previous president had the guts and clarity to select: Iran must be defeated, not contained.
He seemed to hesitate after the U.S.-Iran cease-fire began in April. Most likely, Mr. Trump was convinced that Iran’s new leadership, theoretically led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bhager Ghalibaf, was pragmatic enough to make a rational deal with the U.S. that would limit Iranian long-term military capacity in return for access to reconstruction funds and a stable arrangement in the Strait of Hormuz. That view proved wrong. Mr. Ghalibaf is no pragmatist. And if there are any pragmatists in the Iranian regime, they couldn’t push out the fanatical elements who insist on a final confrontation with America.
Since negotiations broke down in early April, the U.S. has imposed a blockade. Iran has stopped filling tankers at its Kharg Island facility. As the U.S. blocks empty Iranian tankers from re-entering the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s offshore storage capacity decreases as well. As the blockade continues, it will bite deeper, until Iran is compelled to halt extraction at outdated wells. That would make a restart costly and damaging, crippling Iran’s economic capacity over time.
If the U.S. had blockaded Iranian oil exports on Feb. 28, 10-plus weeks of economic pressure combined with a furious air campaign might have brought Tehran to the table by now. If the U.S. had kept attacking targets in southern Iran over the past month rather than pausing for nonexistent negotiations, American warships might be capable of forcing open the Strait of Hormuz without a ground cordon along the coast.
Instead, the U.S. and its allies face a brutal energy-market reality. Roughly a fifth of global fuel exports have been disrupted, despite some clandestine tanker transits and pipeline throughput. This has a direct effect on global prices and an indirect effect on a host of industries, including agriculture and plastics production. If oil remains around $150 a barrel for the rest of the year, inflation will accelerate, while key industries see their supply chains derailed.
Mr. Trump has a narrow window in which to end this crisis favorably, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and ensure an economic rebound while securing American interests and prestige. But that requires deploying the full spectrum of American power.
First, the U.S. should prepare a major series of strikes against Iranian communications, transportation and other infrastructure, while concurrently unleashing the Israeli air force against remaining Iranian industries. Iran’s metallurgical industry, a pillar of its state-backed economy, is badly damaged. Coordinating with Israeli attacks on these targets while disrupting Iranian military movement would cripple virtually every industry for Iran except oil production.
Read the rest at WSJ.
Seth Cropsey is the founder and president of Yorktown Institute.
