Another major conflict beyond the Iran war directly implicates American interests. A patient, quiet, committed effort has stopped the Russian war effort cold. President Trump’s Pentagon wants to pare American commitments in Europe. But the only way to do so is by putting American weight on the scales and generating a decisive final settlement to the Ukraine war, placing the country in the European sphere, a move that would equally bolster American power in the Middle East and supercharge the U.S. military-industrial revival that is a cornerstone of this administration’s agenda.
American policy toward Ukraine under the Biden administration was barely short of a spectacular failure, redeemed only by the efforts of Ukrainian soldiers and society. The Biden administration was fully prepared to let Russia devour Ukraine, indeed hoping that the subsequent occupation would bleed Russian military capacity. Behind the Biden administration’s rhetoric of democracy protection and Euro–Atlantic unity was an unmistakable strategic vacuum. There was no substance, only process; no strategy, only deliberation and policy by inertia. The U.S. drip-fed weapons and intelligence to Ukraine, then blamed Kyiv for failing to conduct its own defense more effectively.
This harsh tutelage, however, created a radically different Ukrainian military system than that of 2022. Ukraine experienced a de facto aid cutoff for six months in 2023–2024. It adapted through societal mobilization, not simply for military personnel, but for industrial production. Throughout 2024, the Ukrainian military transformed itself into a technology-centric force, leveraging a new mass of unmanned systems to impose a brutal attrition on Russia.
The Trump administration’s initial theory was, therefore, wrong. It assumed that Ukraine wholly relied on Western arms transfers and that American transfers were essential. Hence, by ending those transfers, it could compel Kyiv to negotiate. In fact, Ukraine could survive on its own production and with Western cash — which in 2025 became predominantly European cash. Time and again, an increasingly capable Ukraine resisted American pressure to surrender its Donbas fortress belt to Russia.
The Trump administration, however, was right to assume one side in the Ukraine war was vulnerable. It was the larger, ostensibly more powerful side. Russia, not Ukraine, has been vulnerable to extensive military pressure. It is acutely vulnerable today. Ukraine has pounded the Russian military, killing or wounding upwards of 30,000 Russians per month in 2026. When Ukraine achieves this, Russian advances stop cold. Ukraine does this by using short-, medium-, and long-range drones to create a 250-kilometer-deep kill zone. The more effective this becomes, the more Russian casualties will mount.
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Seth Cropsey is the founder and president of Yorktown Institute.
