Grant Newsham

“The Iran war weakens deterrence in Asia, undercuts confidence of US allies and partners, and makes conflict with China more likely.” That’s become an article of faith among those opposing the US fight with Iran. The US military – the navy in particular – is indeed smaller than it should […]

Washington, D.C.: Iran is at a tipping point (once again). And so is President Trump’s foreign policy. Iranians have gone into the streets in the last few weeks to bring down the repressive Islamic regime. But they face an intact, ruthless security service—and some thousands of protesters have been gunned down. Thousands more have been arrested. Sanctions probably won’t be

A Japanese official told me in confidence that Japan was going to relax its rules on defense exports “soon.” That was in 1995. The rules have gradually relaxed over the last three decades, but they are still considerable. At long last, new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her coalition partner, Nippon Ishin no Kai, are poised to remove

Donald Trump has surprised us again, this time with the Gaza peace deal. Give credit where it’s due.  When people are killing each other, they don’t stop easily. And the living hostages are home. Congratulations are in order. However, whether the “peace” holds or not is an open question. Watching

One would think that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the first time a war had to be brought to a close without one side crushing the other, occupying its capital, and dictating terms. It’s always hard to end a war and to have to cut a deal with persons who

Even before taking office, President Trump was clear that the Russia-Ukraine war needed to end. Too much killing, too much of a distraction, and America is unable to focus on other things, such as China. Wars are easier to start than to end, and negotiations are tough. Even more so when the media, pundits

Washington, DC: 2024 was rough. 2025 won’t be any smoother. How rough things get depends mostly on Xi Jinping. He won’t be letting up, and he’s got a powerful military behind him—no matter the economic challenges facing the People’s Republic of China (PRC). What does the PRC have PLANed? Just focusing on Northeast

Chinese leader, Xi Jinping has been clear that he intends to get Taiwan – one way or another. He has good reasons. It would establish Xi as one of the immortals by accomplishing something Mao Tse Tung couldn’t. By taking Taiwan, China breaks through the first island-chain – the island

I was in Palau in September when, by coincidence, an article was published in the Island Times that described the Compacts of Free Association as American “imperial” oppression in service to a “Permanent Oceanic Empire”. All in all, the article argues, the Americans are harmful.  Remove them and all will

“Countries have no friends….just interests” ー or so goes the paraphrased version of Lord Palmerston’s statement. That was so cynical — so 19th Century British Empire. But 170 years later, try buying another nation’s steel company and you might think Lord Palmerston was right. Japan’s largest steel company, Nippon Steel, wants to acquire US